Big Ten preview
Top-heavy again, college football's new bully league could be a bit deeper in 2025
18. Purdue. Last year: 1-11, 0-9. Now more than ever a basketball school. Played four top-five teams last year and got beat by a combined 195-17. The new coach is Barry Odom, who won 20 games at UNLV over the last two seasons. At least they don’t play Penn State and Oregon. Over/under regular-season wins: 2.5.
17. Maryland. Last year: 4-8, 1-8. Terps seem at a low-ebb under Locksley, in his seventh season. Were 3-1 early last year and beat USC after that, but ended the season on a five-game losing streak, none of them close, and could start a true freshman QB (Malik Washington) by default. Over/under: 3.5.
16. Northwestern. Last year: 4-8, 2-7. In the wake of Pat Fitzgerald’s 2023 firing1, then-DC David Braun took over and delivered a remarkable 9-5 season. Last year’s team was not good. The Wildcats didn’t compete against a good team. They should be a little better with 15 starters back and a senior QB, SMU transfer Preston Stone. Over/under: 4.5.
15. UCLA. Last year: 5-7, 3-6. The Bruins won four of their last six a year ago, and welcome Tennessee transfer QB Nico Iamaleava, a big talent who comes with some baggage. The schedule is a problem - UCLA opens with Utah and then goes to sneaky-good UNLV. Penn State comes west in October, and there are five conference road games, including at Ohio State. Over/under: 5.5.
14. Michigan State. Last year: 5-7, 3-6. The fall from 2021’s 11-win season has been steep in every area - recruiting, stability and Ws and Ls. The offense, with nine starters including a pretty-good QB (Aiden Chiles) back, should be better. The schedule does not include Ohio State or Oregon, but does include five conference road games. Over/under: 5.5.
13. Rutgers. Last year: 7-6, 4-5. Greg Schiano has long seemed born for this job, and he has certainly upgraded recruiting since he returned six years ago. But when was the last time Rutgers had a really good player? Phil Steele’s first team, second team and third team all-conference choices, a total of 81 players, include one Rutgers kid. The schedule shows five conference road games, including at Ohio State and at Minnesota coming off a bye. And Penn State and Oregon go to Jersey. Over/under: 5.5.
12. Wisconsin. Last year: 5-7, 3-6. This is the program that has suffered most from B10 expansion and dropping of the old divisional format. Now in the third season under a big-name coach, Luke Fickell, the Badgers seem to be settling in the conference’s lower middle class. The O-line returns 111 starts and at least two likely NFL draftees, which sounds Wisconsin-like. The Badgers go to Alabama Sept. 13, two weeks before the following stretch: at Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, at Oregon. Over/under: 6.5.
11. Washington. Last year: 6-7, 4-5. The Huskies played for a natty in 2023, but last season’s highlight was a 10-point win over then-10th-ranked Michigan week seven.
Jedd Fisch can apparently coach, had some success in the portal in the offseason and appears to have upgraded the line of scrimmage on both sides. The Huskies have a chance to surprise. Over/under: 7.5.
10. Minnesota. Last year: 8-5, 5-4. Fun fact: The Gophers have won eight straight bowl games. They’ve had a tendency under Fleck to play good people tough (such as a 26-25 loss to Penn State last year) but undermine seasons by losing winnable games (like North Carolina and Rutgers last year)2.
This year’s group appears to have a few more holes than last year’s. Over/under: 7.5.
9. Iowa. Last year: 8-5, 6-3. Kirk Ferentz, in his 27th year, is the longest-tenured coach in the country. For perhaps the first time in his tenure, the offense could be better than the defense, thanks to second-year coordinator Tim Decker and QB Mark Gronkowski, who went 49-6 and won two nattys at FCS South Dakota State. Over/under: 8.5.
8. Nebraska. Last year: 7-6, 3-6. The Huskers’ spectacular tendency to lose the close ones continued last year - in OT to Illinois, by four at Ohio State (!), by three at Iowa, etc.
They have a coach (Matt Rhule) and a QB (Dylan Raiola, in his second year as a starter), and 10 starters back on offense. You’re tired of hearing it and I’m tired of writing it, but Nebraska should be better. Over/under: 8.5.
7. Indiana. Last year: 11-2, 8-1. For all the talk of Indiana coming out of nowhere last year, the Hoosiers were favored in every game they won, and the underdog in both losses, to Ohio State (38-15) and Notre Dame (27-17), neither as close as the score suggests.
Cignetti says some dumb things, but he has built this thing fast. There’s still a lot of players, including another free agent QB, Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza. Over/under: 8.5.
6. Illinois. Last year: 10-3, 6-3. The Illini had an excellent season, culminating in a defeat of (very good) South Carolina in the Citrus Bowl. Penn State and Oregon beat Illinois pretty decisively and Minnesota beat the Illini in Champaign.
They should be good again. The QB (Luke Altmyer) is among 19 starters back, and the offensive line looks elite. This is a good indication of how deep the B10 could be. Over/under: 9.5.
5. USC. Last year: 7-6, 4-5. Five of the six losses were by one score, including in OT to Penn State, and by a field goal to Michigan. Sixteen starters are back. The new QB, Jayden Maiava, went 3-1 as a starter last year, and the starting lineup figures to be packed with veterans. Lincoln Riley also has the best 2026 recruiting class in the country. Over/under: 9.5.
4. Michigan. Last year: 8-5, 5-4. The overall record is less important than the last two wins: 13-10 at Ohio State as a 19-point underdog, and 19-13 to Alabama as a 16-point dog.
The O-line should be better, the defense and offensive skill positions not as good. Michigan’s chance to be a national factor depends on a freshman QB, Bryce Underwood, who appears to be on the Cam Newton-Terrelle Pryor spectrum but only turns 18 this month. Over/under: 9-5.
3. Ohio State. Last year: 15-1, 8-1. Fourteen Buckeyes were chosen in the 2025 NFL draft. A starting QB competition between R-freshman Julian Sayin and sophomore Lincoln Kienholz is undecided as this is written, which tells you they haven’t found The Guy.
Just three starters return on a defense that lost coordinator Jim Knowles and replaced him with Matt Patricia, an NFL vet with an uneven resume. Patricia is installing a 3-4 front, a sizable change. Oh, and they open the season with #1 Texas.
On the other hand, nobody recruits at a higher level. Ohio State might have the best offensive player (WR Jeremiah Smith) and defensive player (S Caleb Downs) in the country. They’ll be real good again. Maybe not national-champ good. Over/under: 10.5.
2. Oregon. Last year: 13-1, 9-0. The Ducks first Big Ten run was impressive - 13 straight wins, including over Ohio State and Penn State, and the conference title. But they were throttled by Ohio State in the playoff, much more soundly than the 41-21 final suggests.
This is a little like Michigan with the Underwood kid. If UCLA transfer QB Dante Moore comes close to his potential, the Ducks will be back in the hunt. Over/under: 10.5.
1. Penn State. Last year: 13-3, 8-1. It comes down to this: If a team with this roster, this level of experience and this top-to-bottom coaching staff, coming off a 13-win, national semifinalist season, was called Ohio State or Michigan or Oregon, would anyone on Earth not be picking them to win the B10?
No. They’re far from a lock, but the can’t-win-the-big-one nonsense isn’t the reason. Over/under: 10.5.
Fitzgerald was firing for a hazing scandal. The trial in his wrongful-termination lawsuit begins in November.
In 2021, they lost at home to Bowling Green as a 31-point favorite.